Market Snapshot

In October 2025, the bulk of Singapore’s public housing market registered a sharp shift. According to flash data, the total number of Housing & Development Board (HDB) resale flats sold plunged 38.4 % month-on-month, amounting to just 1,347 units — the lowest monthly volume since the early Covid-19 period in 2020.

Year-on-year, the drop was approximately 37.6% compared to October 2024.

At the same time, resale prices edged down by 0.6 % for the month — a modest dip, but noteworthy in the context of a steep volume contraction.

Million-dollar flat transactions, meanwhile, halved: from 172 units in September to 87 in October, accounting for just 6.5% of the total resale market.

Why Did Volume Drop So Sharply?

Several interlocking factors appear to be at play:

• Supply of new flats: In 2025, over 30,000 BTO and balance flats were launched via major sales exercises held in February, July and October. Analysts caution that this supply may have diverted buyers from the resale market.
• Price resistance: Analysts point out that prospective buyers may have held off purchases in resale flats while awaiting clearer interest-rate trends or more value in waiting.
• Leaning to private property: With some smaller-unit new launch condominiums priced nearly even with high-end HDB flats, a segment of households is reportedly “making the leap” to private homes, decreasing resale HDB demand.
• End-of-year seasonal lull: Historically, real-estate activity slows toward year-end, adding a seasonal dimension to the drop. (Analysts suggest caution before drawing broad conclusions.)

   

For Buyers: Is This a Window of Opportunity?

If you’re a prospective buyer, three questions matter: price, timing, and competition.

Price: A 0.6% dip in prices isn’t dramatic in absolute terms but set against the volume drop it suggests hesitation rather than a structural decline. While average asking prices may soften, there’s no guarantee of steep markdowns.

Timing: If you need accommodation and meet eligibility, a purchase now may make sense. With lower transactional competition, you may negotiate more favourably. That said, if you aren’t pressed, watching for further clarity in early-2026 can also be prudent.

Competition and alternative pathways: With BTO projects supplying new flats and private launches encroaching on high-end HDB territory, choice is expanding. Buyers could consider whether resale HDB remains the best entry point or whether BTO or new-launch private units better meet their goals.

Fairloan’s take: For buyers comfortable with a stable cost and lower risk, a well-identified resale HDB is now a defensible option. For those willing to wait or evaluate broader options (BTO or new launch private), patience may pay off.

For Sellers: Should You Wait for the Peak?

If you’re considering selling your flat, the sharp drop in volume may raise alarm. Less demand means a longer marketing window or more negotiation.

Waiting strategy: If you believe prices will push higher (perhaps due to infrastructure, policy support, or low interest rates), waiting may make sense.

Active strategy: If you’ve secured a new home or need liquidity, lower competition now might allow you to close quickly before the noise of launches returns.

Fairloan’s advice: Align your list price realistically with market sentiment. If your flat is well-located and in good condition, you may fare better now while sincere buyers are active. If not, consider selling strategically around the next major new-supply wave (e.g., mid-2026) rather than pushing for the highest valuations in a quiet month.

Big Picture: What’s Around the Corner?

Looking ahead, several factors may influence whether the market picks up or remains cautious:

• Interest-rate trends and mortgage financing costs.

   

• Further launch supply from HDB and private sectors.

   

• Lease-decay visibility for older flats.

   

• Buyer sentiment, especially among singles and couples using near-parent policy changes.

   

Historical Perspective: Property Prices Tend to Be Resilient

Despite the sharp 38% plunge in October’s resale volume, history suggests that Singapore’s property market, particularly the HDB resale segment, is remarkably resilient. Temporary pullbacks in transaction numbers have occurred several times over the past decade, yet prices have tended to stabilise quickly and recover once sentiment improves.

For instance, after the cooling measures of 2018 and 2021, resale activity initially dipped, only to rebound within two to three quarters as pent-up demand returned. Even during the Covid-19 circuit breaker in 2020, when transactions nearly ground to a halt, resale volumes and prices surged strongly in the following year, driven by limited BTO supply and shifting buyer preferences toward completed homes.

This pattern underscores a key feature of Singapore’s housing market: homeowners are rarely distressed sellers. Because HDB loans are stable at 2.6% and the overall employment base remains strong, most sellers have little pressure to offload below market value. Many prefer to wait for the right buyer or valuation, rather than hastily discount their flats.

On the demand side, structural forces remain supportive. Singapore’s population continues to grow modestly, household formations remain steady, and upgrading aspirations persist. Buyers consistently re-enter the market once they perceive prices have levelled off or financing conditions have improved. The current dip, therefore, looks more like a pause than a downturn.

Fairloan

At Fairloan, our view is that while volume data may fluctuate month to month, the underlying demand-supply fundamentals remain intact. With new BTO launches easing some pressure and mortgage rates trending lower into 2026, the HDB resale market is likely to find its footing and rebound once buyer confidence returns — much like it has after every slowdown over the past decade.

In short: A 38% drop in resale volumes is significant, but it doesn’t automatically mean fire-sale prices. For both buyers and sellers, it signals a pause, not panic. Those who act with clarity rather than haste are likely to benefit.